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Daas Yochid's avatar

I'll comment despite the paywall meaning no one will read it.

The main issue with the Dovid post (and I have listed multiple issues in the past) is the mabul. The mabul either means the Torah is false, not literal (kvetch a local flood) or a myth. It's that simple.

You ignore that issue.

Ben Torah's avatar

The thing that jars me about this post is how thin a razor edge we are both dancing on, and what exactly is the difference between me, a big, bad, ugly, autistic, probably abused, never-tasted-true-Yiddishkeit atheist kofer, and you, a sincere truth seeker.

When we are trying to figure out the truth of something that requires a shikul hadaas, I imagine our brains as having this sort of a three-dimensional space where we run all these Bayesian analyses - a topography/latticework of bars, all trying to solve for for the question. Here the question is "Is belief in Judaism reasonable?" You're running that math and I'm running that math - with all the little sub-issues resoving into one solution. The only question is how we crunch the numbers.

In your post, the issue is very blunt: the universe looks very old. Civilization looks very old and in no way, shape, or form conforms to the story in the Torah. So what is a believer supposed to do? As you said yourself, if not for the Torah, you would undoubtedly assume the world is billions of years old. But you have other data points that make you hesitant to say the Torah is false. Fine. So what are the big solutions? By your own accounting, you have three options:

1 – Daas Yochid's non-literal counter-myth approach. But your brain rejects that as unreasonable.

2 – "Evolution shmevolution, archeology shmarcheology." Which you admit does not make you happy at all.

3 – Last Thursdayism - or as someone in this thread summed up, "God designed us consistent with the evolutionary process, but did it 5,800 years ago, and then made it look like the evolutionary process ran for billions of years." You yourself seem deeply uncomfortable with this approach.

So what's the bottom line? You have reasons to believe the Torah is true, so you'll hold your nose and ascribe a 51% probability to Last Thursdayism being correct, whereas I would ascribe it 49% — maybe because חותמו של הקב"ה אמת and לא איש אל ויכזב, maybe because it's a massive overreach of the gemara of בקומתן נבראו, maybe because it renders everything unfalsifiable. But the point is that we are dancing on the edge of a razor here. These are tiny distinctions in reasonableness.

And, if we were to explore the surface area of this question, it would be the same everywhere else.

I bet if we discussed the Kuzari, it would boil down to a handful of equally obscure and complicated judgment calls. What exactly counts as a mass experiential tradition. How myth formation works. How reasonable it is to rely on human incredulity to stop the first false belief.

If we discussed yetzias Mitzrayim and the evidence and counter-evidence for those events happening, it would probably come down to how willing you are to accept Rabbi Hool's revised chronology over the conventional one. We would end up deep in the weeds of how cross-locked the various Egyptian dates are with Assyrian and Babylonian records and how they fit in with the solar eclipse records, etc., and how much of the ancient Near East you're willing to redate to make room for the Sader Olam.

If we discuss the mabul, it probably come down to how reasonable you find Rabbi Meiselman's idea that since the pasuk says the sun didn't move and the water was boiling, the whole event was a total suspension of the natural order, and therefore no evidence can ever be brought to contradict it.

Not to beat a dead horse, but looking at your post for erlier this week, it's the same with your post about the religious experience. You and I both look at the data and agree the explanation is either (x) "brain states" or (y) the existence of a non-material dimension that our consciousness is tapping into. Your read of the evidence says the non-physical explanation is more likely, lets say call it 60/40. Fine. I looked at the same evidence and gave it 60/40 the other way.

My point is that these are all complex judgment calls. You're making them and I'm making them. We take all these weights and judgments and add them up to decide how reasonable and justified Jewish belief is. For me the math comes out -50 percent; for you it comes out +50 percent. Ok, great, reasonable minds can disagree. but what bothers me is that there's this exasperated way of interacting with OTD people on this platform. We're obtuse, autistic, haughty, unable to change our minds, prone to dumb groupthink, convinced we're smarter than we actually are. That condescending framework is present in almost every comment section here. But if the entire distance between us is a tiny shikul hadaas about how reasonable a pretend-old earth is - why am I now the baal gaavah, stuck-in-his-ways atheist OTD bum, and you're the reasonable mivakesh?

One more point. Orthodox Judaism demands emunah sheleimah, not uncomfortable Bayesian wiffle-waffle. When I was still a believer, starting to have these kinds of thoughts, it became harder and harder to have kavanah in Shema and think "bechol nafshecha, afilu notel es nafshecha." Are you willing to die over the proposition that Last Thursdayism is 51% more likely than the universe actually being old? Every year your children come home from cheder with the story of Chana and her seven sons. Are you willing to sacrifice your children because your Bayesian probability matrix assigns a 51% chance that Judaism is probably reasonable?

I hope to have some thoughts on the actual arguments, but I wanted to get this idea out there first.

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